Iran is “seeking” escalation to increase its bargaining power in the standoff with the United States and Donald Trump. The situation for the Islamic Republic is highly complex: the country faces enormous economic pressure, with a U.S. naval blockade and tightening sanctions that are isolating Tehran. New factors have emerged in the region. The strategic position gained by Yemen’s Houthi movement, allied with Tehran, is shifting the balance of power for now, as noted by the New York Times. Through its proxies, Iran effectively controls two strategic oil routes. The Strait of Hormuz has been at the center of the confrontation with the U.S. for months; the Houthis now threaten the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Oil routes risk paralysis
‘The routes for exporting oil from the Middle East,’ the U.S. daily observes, ‘are shrinking. Energy prices are rising sharply. And countries neighboring Iran could be on the verge of, in some form, recognizing Tehran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz.’ In the past week, ‘Iran and its allies have used military escalation to unsettle the little stability that remained in the region, especially in Yemen. This is shifting the balance of its confrontation with the United States in Iran’s favor.’
Trump does not intervene against the Houthis
For now, Trump has not changed his stance. “We had discussions. The Houthis called us. They don’t want us to go after them,” the White House chief said. Saudi Arabia reportedly requested U.S. intervention twice without receiving a positive response. Trump downplayed tensions, calling Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a “good friend” and saying “it will be fine.” Saudi Arabia is acting on its own for the moment. According to the Houthis, who deny contact with the U.S., Riyadh launched 129 airstrikes in the past 48 hours against positions in Yemen, hitting the governorates of Taiz, Marib, Hodeidah, Al-Jawf, Saada, Amran and Hajjah. F-15 and Typhoon jets were reportedly used, taking off from bases at Khamis Mushait and Taif in Saudi Arabia.
However, the New York Times notes that the balance could still change: “The Islamic Republic remains under enormous economic pressure, with the ongoing U.S. naval blockade of its southern ports and the tightening of sanctions that are isolating it from the rest of the world.”
Tehran exploits the advantage
Analysts say recent attacks by Iran and its allies may have given Tehran greater negotiating power, at least for the time being. “The success of the Houthis in Yemen has once again tilted the balance in Iran’s favor,” says Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group. Iran has managed to alter “the status quo without escalating the conflict into a full-scale war, which the regime likely does not want at this time.”
While Iran provides the Houthis with weapons, money and logistical support, analysts argue the Shiite group is neither merely an instrument of Iranian interests in Yemen nor entirely independent of Tehran’s influence. Meanwhile, oil prices risk rising further. Higher energy prices give Iran additional leverage, since elevated fuel costs pose political risks for President Trump as the United States approaches the midterm elections.
Saudi Arabia faces serious risk
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, the U.S. paper notes, “has become increasingly dependent on the Red Sea, since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the conflict. In July the Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi ships, opened fire on vessels transiting the Red Sea and attacked oil infrastructure in the kingdom. Saudi oil exports fell last month to their lowest level in 13 years.” Compounding the problem, on Friday a pipeline carrying oil to Saudi ports on the Red Sea was temporarily closed after a drone attack originating from Iraqi territory, the Saudi energy ministry said. “Although it is not yet clear who was responsible for the attack, in the past Saudi Arabia has accused Iran-backed Iraqi militias of striking its energy infrastructure, and on Saturday Trump said Iran was ‘probably’ responsible.”
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