Donald Trump predicts an “explosion” in Iran within three days. Tehran, meanwhile, has rejected a nuclear deal and is seeking support from Russia. Negotiations to bring the conflict to a definitive close remain stalled, and direct talks between the United States and Iran have not taken off, leaving the situation in a precarious standoff. Trump has put the mission of special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner on hold: they will not travel to Pakistan to meet Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. “No point in making an 18-hour flight to accomplish nothing,” Trump summarized.
“If they want to talk, they can come to us or they can call us. You know, there’s a telephone. We have secure and reliable lines,” the White House chief told Fox News. U.S. conditions are clear: Iran must abandon any effort to acquire nuclear weapons, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain under a U.S. naval blockade until an agreement is signed.
The forecast
“The war with Iran will end very soon, and we will come out decisively victorious,” the U.S. president said, repeating familiar rhetoric. The prospect of reaching May 1 – and the possible need for congressional authorization to continue military operations thereafter – does not seem to unsettle him. What is new is a technical warning offered by Trump, which effectively serves as an ultimatum to Tehran: the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is depriving the Islamic Republic of roughly $500 million in revenue each day.
According to Trump, the blockade is also overwhelming Iran’s oil infrastructure and risks causing a catastrophic failure. “Large amounts of crude are continuing to accumulate in the system, but lines are idle because ships and containers cannot be used. The system, mechanically or underground, simply explodes. They have three days to avoid a rupture or an explosion that could damage the system permanently. It would be impossible to fully rebuild it; they could fall to 50% of current capacity. The Iranians are under pressure,” he said.
Tehran turns to Putin
Trump’s assessment does not appear to be bringing Iran to the negotiating table. Tasnim, an agency close to the Revolutionary Guards and the military establishment, reports that Tehran is no longer interested in a U.S. deal that would impose limits on its nuclear program. Iran’s stated priorities are the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions, compensation for damages, and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. Only afterward, Iranian sources say, would uranium enrichment be a subject for discussion with Washington. That sequence could further complicate an already difficult dialogue. Iran also seems to distrust Pakistan’s mediation role. “Pakistan is a good neighbor and a good friend but is not a suitable mediator for negotiations and lacks the necessary credibility. It always takes Trump’s interests into account,” Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for Iran’s National Security Committee, wrote on X.
Tehran is shifting its diplomatic approach and engaging on multiple fronts, entrusting missions and contacts to its foreign minister. After stops in Pakistan and Oman, the top diplomat will travel to Russia to meet Vladimir Putin and review the crisis. Araghchi will discuss “with Russian officials the latest status of negotiations, the ceasefire and related developments,” and will present “a report of the talks” to Moscow, Isna reports.
A phone call between Araghchi and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot may go unnoticed amid these movements. According to a statement from Iran’s foreign ministry shared on Telegram, Araghchi emphasized “the importance of the constructive role” European countries can play for peace in the region. An agreement with Trump is sought, but other actors are also in play.
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