Signs of a turning point. The war against Iran has reached the three-week mark, and the United States is preparing for a new phase of the conflict that began on February 28 with the launch of Operation Epic Fury ordered by Donald Trump. “I believe we have won. I don’t want a ceasefire; you don’t do that when you are destroying the enemy,” says the U.S. president, reiterating American military superiority in a confrontation he considers decisively won. The current objective is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: Tehran is blocking the oil route, paralyzing about 20% of the global crude market with inevitable effects on markets. “We don’t use the Strait. It’s for Europe, China, Japan. At some point it will open by itself,” Trump says while continuing to sharply criticize the “cowardly” NATO members who did not respond to calls to form an international coalition. Meanwhile, Washington is taking steps that suggest a ‘phase 2’ of the offensive. According to CBS, the Pentagon has prepared detailed plans for the deployment of U.S. ground forces.
London permits use of bases
The plan will have the cooperation of the United Kingdom, which has authorized the United States to use British bases for strikes against Iranian targets. The authorization now also covers U.S. “defensive” operations aimed at striking capabilities Iran uses to attack ships in the Strait. Iran’s response was immediate: “A large majority of the British people do not want to be involved in Israel and the U.S.’s war against Iran,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in a message addressed to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. “By ignoring his people, Mr. Starmer puts British lives at risk by allowing the use of bases for aggression against Iran, which will exercise its right to self-defense.”
Everything depends on the decisions Trump will make. In a steady stream of statements and social posts, the president has taken positions that often contradicted each other within hours. In particular, he denied intending to send American ground troops but left a door open. The U.S. war machine is adding elements that allow strategies and operational plans to be adjusted with some flexibility in relatively short times. “U.S. armed forces can seize Kharg Island at any time if the president gives the order,” White House deputy spokeswoman Anna Kelly told AFP, drawing attention to the island that lies at the heart of Iran’s oil system.
Ships and Marines arrive
In the evolving picture, the Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands more Marines to the Middle East, marking a second troop deployment to the region in recent days. About 2,200 personnel from the USS Boxer amphibious task group, based in California, and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit-originally destined for the Indo-Pacific-had their mission changed and accelerated: they are now heading to the theater of operations. It is unclear when they will actually arrive in the region and what their specific mission will be. The deployment follows the recent dispatch of another task group, the Tripoli amphibious ready group with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, also composed of some 2,200 personnel, toward the Middle East. The USS Tripoli, in particular, was reported near Singapore at the start of the week. It is not clear whether both units will operate simultaneously or for how long.
More intense raids
The picture also includes an increase in air operations by the United States and some unnamed allies to neutralize ships, mines and cruise missiles deployed by Iran. A-10 aircraft have been deployed to fly low over the stretch of sea to interdict Iranian attack boats, and Apache helicopters are being used to strike drones, General Dan Caine, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, explained. The use of A-10s and Apaches can occur under particular conditions: these aircraft fly at low altitude and relatively slow speeds, making them vulnerable to effective air defenses. Iran, apparently, is lacking in this area of its military apparatus.
“An A-10 Warthog is deployed on the southern flank, and it strikes fast-attack boats in the Strait of Hormuz, and Apaches are now participating in the operations,” Caine said at a press conference. Some allied countries are deploying their Apaches “to strike loitering attack drones.” So far, U.S. air raids have destroyed or damaged more than 120 Iranian naval units, according to Pentagon figures. Tehran, however, still has a large arsenal of truck-mounted missiles and hundreds of vessels hidden in underground sites, along the coast and on islands, analyst Farzim Nadimi of the Institute for Near East Policy revealed, predicting that it will take several more weeks before the strait can be reopened.
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