The two-week truce in the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is not the result of a single event but of “seven key factors” that affected the military, political and economic balance of the crisis. This is emphasized in a piece for Adnkronos by Seyed Hossein Mousavian, who served as Iran’s spokesperson in nuclear negotiations with the international community (2003-2005) and is currently a visiting professor at Princeton University.
The seven factors
According to Mousavian, the first decisive element was Iran’s ability to withstand military pressure. “Iran’s 40-day resistance and the powerful response of its armed forces in a ‘war of survival’ destroyed the belief, held for 47 years by supporters of a US-Israel war, that ‘the Iranian government would collapse under a military attack’.” A second factor concerns the economic effects of the escalation. He argues that Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz “triggered financial market collapses and a sharp rise in energy prices,” altering “not only the calculations of war planners but the entire equation of the conflict.”
On the operational level, Mousavian cites a US military “covert” operation to recover the downed F-15 pilot which, he believes, was actually intended to “seize 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% and failed.”
Also decisive, according to the Iranian academic, was the domestic situation in the Islamic Republic, where a significant number of Iranians took to the streets in support of the government. He adds that the diaspora largely engaged in campaigns opposing a war against Iran.
Mousavian also pointed to the role of internal security, emphasizing “the strength of Iran’s military forces in protecting borders and preventing the entry of terrorist groups, which blocked attempts to create chaos and fear in the country.” Another key element was the international and US political climate. “Rising public opposition to the war both in the United States and globally, growing reluctance among US politicians to pursue it, and the likelihood of a significant Republican defeat in the US November elections all played an important role,” he observed.
Finally, Mousavian said the regional dimension of the conflict was significant, since “the regional expansion of the war, the heavy damage inflicted by Iran on Israel, on US bases and allied countries, as well as the significant damage sustained by Iran, were all factors taken into account by both sides.”
Uncertainties for the future
Looking ahead, two main uncertainties remain: the durability of the truce, particularly given tensions with Israel on the Lebanese front, and whether dialogue between Tehran and Washington will resume. “It remains to be seen whether the high-level talks between Iran and the United States, scheduled for Friday in Pakistan, will take place and produce results,” Mousavian concluded.