Escalation in Iran halts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and pushes Brent up about 4%; OPEC lowers its demand forecasts. Michele Marsiglia, president of Federpetroli, warns of a maritime insurance freeze and rejects Donald Trump’s proposed “toll” plan. With global stocks precarious, U.S. crude is replacing supplies from the Persian Gulf, and price rises will soon affect household energy bills.

For the third consecutive month, OPEC has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, cutting by roughly 190,000 barrels per day and leaving projected growth for the year at about 780,000 barrels per day. “We see an OPEC that is struggling relative to the global oil scene,” Michele Marsiglia told Adnkronos. Some member states have curtailed crude production because of the conflict involving Iran, while countries not affected by the hostilities are gradually increasing output. Brent recorded a daily rise of about 4% after nearly a 10% surge in the previous session, trading around $85 per barrel on average. Due to violated truces and ceasefires, conditions in Hormuz resemble the early days of the conflict: “Nothing has been done, nothing has been reopened.” Between June 18 and July 4, average transits through the Strait were roughly fifteen ships; after recent attacks, passage has fallen sharply to about four or five vessels, mostly merchant ships rather than tankers. “We cannot say that crude prices are falling.” OPEC’s decision to lower production estimates may also reflect a de facto standstill in Hormuz.

Attacks on tankers are also disrupting maritime insurance and could effectively block transits. Marine insurance contracts allow insurers to suspend coverage: “If war risk is no longer insured, the situation becomes even more stagnant,” Marsiglia notes. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, some vessels might remain unable to sail. U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to have U.S. forces act as “custodians” of Hormuz in return for a 20% toll on the value of each cargo to cover security costs does not improve the outlook. “In this economy tolls are familiar, but if at current prices a shipment ends up costing twice as much, goods will remain stationary,” the federation president says.

“The United States now has little credibility,” Marsiglia adds. Ships remain idle even when the U.S. announces the reopening of Hormuz. Until economic activity in the Strait or the Persian Gulf actually resumes, no reliable economic assessment can be made. This situation benefits the United States: although crude is not flowing from the Persian Gulf, many countries have turned to the U.S. to meet their oil needs.

“We are operating at an unsustainable scale in the oil economy,” the president warns. Available stocks are short by about 350 million barrels, and estimates for September are bleak, with figures discussed around 900 million. Another unresolved issue is the capacity to restore damaged refining infrastructure; Qatar and Saudi Arabia have already warned that returning to full capacity could take years. “We are buying product, but at an unfavorable price to preserve a nation’s supply. The impact will be seen on Italian household energy bills in the coming months, if not weeks,” he concludes. (By Marco Cherubini)