A United States-Iran agreement is “within reach,” although the nuclear file still needs to be defined and will be addressed later. This is the view of Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an Iranian-American professor at the Missouri University of Science and Technology and author of “Postrevolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook.” In an interview with Adnkronos, he highlights China’s role in the conflict, the effects of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz on oil markets, and notes that the United States appears more eager to conclude a deal than the Islamic Republic.

“I believe an agreement is within reach, even though a final solution on the nuclear dossier has not yet been reached. That will come later,” the professor says, arguing that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a huge impact on the global energy market and created pressures the U.S. administration can no longer ignore. “Markets were strongly affected by the closure of Hormuz. The resulting inflationary pressures and supply-chain disruptions were not something Trump could continue to ignore for long,” he explains.

Tehran, he adds, is skilled at using control of the strait as a bargaining tool. “Iran will reopen the strait only when it is granted significant concessions. It also knows it can close it again at any time if developments do not go in the direction it wants,” Boroujerdi says, noting that Washington now shows greater urgency in reaching an agreement. “In my view Washington is more anxious to reach a deal, while Tehran can afford to wait longer because it wants to be sure any agreement is not useless and that it will not be attacked again.”

Boroujerdi also analyzes China’s crucial role in the crisis, pointing out that the Asian giant imports about 70% of its oil needs, roughly 30% of which passes through the strait. “Beijing does not buy crude only from Iran but also from other Gulf countries, and it has a strong interest in seeing this war end,” the expert says, underlining that China “needs commercial stability.”

Finally, the professor highlights internal divisions within both the United States and Iran that slow progress toward a settlement. “Trump will have difficulty presenting this agreement as better than the 2015 deal and will face criticism from conservative and pro-Israel circles,” he concludes. “In Iran, hawks are watching the negotiations closely to ensure that no one sells out the country.”