“Iran has no chance, it should wave the white flag.” Donald Trump presses on: for the U.S. president there is no longer an enemy to fight. The war, however, could resume as early as this week, despite announcements and statements that paint a different picture. “Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” says Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“The ceasefire is in effect,” says Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Washington is focusing mainly on Operation Project Freedom, aimed at reopening maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring the passage of commercial vessels. Two U.S. destroyers transited the Strait after having “repelled” attacks from Tehran involving missiles and drones. “A skirmish,” Trump downplays the incident, minimizing its significance and avoiding clarification on what would amount to a clear violation of the truce.
The ceasefire holds (more or less)
Iran says it fired “warning shots” at U.S. naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after those ships ignored instructions not to approach the area. The White House describes the events as skirmishes or little more: “Iran knows what it must and must not do,” Trump says. “They fired from small boats with blowpipes, because they no longer have ships. They would do well to behave sensibly, because we do not want to go there and kill people. I don’t want that, it’s too harsh.”
Hegseth and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine, say that the Iranian attacks remain “below the threshold” for a resumption of large-scale hostilities. “We expected some instability at the start of the operation,” Hegseth says, adding that Washington is communicating with Tehran “both publicly and through confidential channels” to allow the mission, described as defensive, to proceed.
In front of cameras and microphones, the U.S. president remains confident that a negotiated solution is possible provided a fundamental demand is met: “Iran must not have nuclear weapons.” The truce is therefore holding despite the sparks in the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of a return to war, however, is far from remote. U.S. and Israeli officials believe Trump could order a resumption of attacks this week if the diplomatic deadlock with Tehran continues, Axios reports. Rubio suggests the balance that has been reached is extremely fragile.
“Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz is a defensive operation. If shots are not fired at our ships, we will not fire,” the top diplomat assures, adding that “at the same time, if we are hit, we will respond and we will do so with lethal efficiency.” Rubio notes that other countries intend to take part in the operation: “Several countries have said ‘we need to do something and solve the problem,'” he adds.
Rubio and Italy’s role
The Secretary of State is preparing to fly to Italy and comments on Italy’s role on the international stage, particularly in Lebanon: “What needs to happen in Lebanon, what everyone wants to see, is a Lebanese government capable of confronting and dismantling Hezbollah, and I think Italy could be helpful in that regard. Italians have long been involved in training the Lebanese police and security forces, so we would like to hear their views on this.” Italy, through Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, firmly reiterates that no unit of the Italian Navy has departed or is about to depart for the Strait of Hormuz area.
New plans for the war
In the crucial stretch of sea, the risk of an “incident” is high. Iran placed naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire that began on April 7, General Caine says in Washington, showing the media a map indicating explosive devices. Tehran placed additional mines on April 23, after having deployed some in the early phases of the conflict. U.S. officials, according to the Wall Street Journal, believe the mines would not completely close the Strait: commercial vessels could still transit while avoiding the devices. Nevertheless, the presence of mines makes passage more complex and slows traffic along one of the world’s most important energy routes.
War 2.0, CNN reports, is already the subject of discussions between Israel and the United States, including preparations for a possible new round of attacks on Iran. An Israeli source cited by the network says any new raids would focus on energy infrastructure, and new operations could target figures within the Islamic Republic. Many of these plans, the network notes, had been prepared and were ready to be implemented before the truce took effect last month. “The intention would be to carry out a short campaign aimed at pressuring Iran to make further concessions in negotiations,” the source told CNN. The final decision on whether to resume military operations, however, remains Donald Trump’s to make.