What is worrying is the political signal sent by US President Donald Trump’s decision to reduce troop levels in Germany, and the threat to do the same in Italy and Spain. The move reflects Trump’s dissatisfaction with the behavior of allies, but if it signals that defending Europe is no longer a US priority, that would be an alarming message that benefits Russia. Stefano Stefanini, senior advisor at ISPI and a former ambassador to NATO, told Adnkronos this comment on the Pentagon-confirmed decision to cut about 5,000 US personnel in Germany, and on the still preliminary, unspecified threat to take similar steps regarding Italy and Spain. There are differences, Stefanini notes, since “with Italy there is not the same direct dispute that Trump has had with Merz or with Sanchez.”
“What worries me is not so much the withdrawal itself – certainly not the one from Germany, where more than 30,000 US troops will remain and levels will return to those of 2022,” Stefanini explains, noting the political signal from the Pentagon that the reduction is linked to American dissatisfaction with Germany’s stance on Iran.
The troop cuts therefore mark a “break” between the United States and Germany, while “as for Italy and Spain, we will wait and see.” Stefanini stresses that a reduction in personnel is very different from closing bases, which is not being discussed at the moment. Trump has expressed dissatisfaction about Italy and Spain too, but “there is no point in worrying until an announcement is made and we know the scale.”
Stefanini observes that Trump appears to view the presence of US forces in countries like Germany, Spain and Italy primarily as a net benefit to those host countries because they protect them, rather than as a way of defending American interests from an external position. If the political message becomes that the defense provided by US troops and bases in Europe is no longer a US priority, “that would be worrying.” Such a shift, he adds, would create a fracture within the Atlantic Alliance that would advantage Russia: “the weaker the Atlantic Alliance, the more emboldened Russia becomes, increasing the likelihood of new adventures beyond the conflict in Ukraine.”
For now, Stefanini emphasizes, these are political and geopolitical signals rather than changes to the balance of power between Russia and NATO: “5,000 troops do not alter the equation, and neither would another 5,000 withdrawn from Italy and Spain.” From a strategic and military standpoint, he judges the immediate effects to be limited, and points to the NATO summit in mid-July as a moment to reassess developments.