28 September 2026 | 12:41
READING: 3 minutes
“If the foiled terrorist attack at RAF Fairford is connected to what is happening in the Middle East, it could be hardliners trying to obstruct the Iranian government’s efforts to negotiate a resolution with the United States. Alternatively, it could involve allied forces such as Hezbollah, dissatisfied with the limited attention Iran is giving to their interests.” This is how Professor Antonio Giustozzi, one of the leading experts on terrorism and Middle East conflicts at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) — the world’s oldest think tank focused on defense, conflict and geopolitics based in London — commented in an interview with Adnkronos about the recent threats of alleged Middle Eastern origin recorded last night in Gloucestershire, northwest of the British capital. Giustozzi, who has conducted research for major academic institutions including Columbia University and Georgetown University, points out that “violent actions of this magnitude can stem both from internal fractures within the Tehran regime and from the dissatisfaction of allied factions in the region.”
The seriousness of this scenario is reflected in the events of Sunday night at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire. Law enforcement and British counterterrorism units thwarted a potential attack against the strategic military installation used by the U.S. Air Force in operations related to the conflict with Iran. Officers acted promptly, arresting five men on charges of possession of explosive materials and preparation of terrorist acts. Army explosive ordnance disposal teams employed remote-controlled robots to inspect vehicles, assess the actual threat posed by the improvised devices found, and try to establish their origin. The incident triggered maximum security alerts at Fairford and at other U.S. bases in the United Kingdom.
“The line of attack inevitably intersects with Fairford’s central role in the Middle East theater: the base hosts strategic B-1 and B-52 bombers used by U.S. forces in raids against Iranian missile sites. In previous months, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards had already identified the facility as a legitimate target for potential defensive or retaliatory actions. Moreover, Iranian armed forces had declared a state of highest alert in anticipation of U.S. strikes. Therefore this attempted terrorist act against RAF Fairford could have been conceived as a warning against further escalation,” Giustozzi adds. Regarding the possibility that the operation was ordered directly by Tehran’s leadership, the terrorism and international conflict expert offers further analysis: “Despite concessions made by Tehran, Iranian leaders fear that the dialogue is at an impasse. For this reason, the country’s leadership may have decided to raise the pressure, pushing Iranian diplomacy toward harder positions.”
This additional reading suggests that the plot foiled near Fairford could fit into a calculated strategy of escalation by Iran’s leadership, intended to raise the stakes and force a diplomatic deadlock to break through demonstrative action on the ground. Investigators are continuing their inquiries to determine whether the arrested group acted as an autonomous cell or under direct orders, since “it is not yet clear what the attack plan was, nor whether the action was intended to have substantial impact or was primarily demonstrative,” Giustozzi concludes. (by Alessandro Allocca)
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