“Wars, unlike illegal tariffs, cannot be switched on and off at the president’s convenience to support collapsing markets.” For this reason, Donald Trump might not be able to exit this conflict with Iran even if he truly wanted to – a “Taco” move (the acronym for “Trump always chickens out”), coined during his many tariff suspensions. CNN comments on Trump’s striking decision to postpone for five days the threatened strikes against Iranian energy facilities, referring to a 15-point agreement said to have emerged from what it calls productive talks, while Tehran denies any direct dialogue with Washington.
Are we near a turning point?
If the most optimistic interpretation is that Iran and the U.S. have recognized the terrible cost escalation would impose and therefore sought an exit, the American broadcaster stresses there are many reasons to be skeptical that a breakthrough is imminent. It highlights how days of erratic and contradictory statements by Trump, along with his inability from day one to provide a coherent justification for an attack on Iran or to outline an exit strategy, have eroded the credibility of any claim coming from Washington.
No one should be surprised if Trump ends up bombing Iranian energy sites before the five days are up – possibly before next Friday – and perhaps deliberately after market hours, given that the president announced the pause just minutes after markets reopened on Monday. Some cynics suggest the timing was intended to halt rising oil prices and calm market volatility.
Trump would also have another reason to buy time: U.S. military forces capable of enabling an invasion of Kharg Island or the occupation of islands and coastal areas along the Strait of Hormuz have not yet arrived in the region. America and the rest of the world, especially the U.S.’s traditional allies, have learned the hard way that erratic, hyperbolic, unpredictable behavior is the operative style of the real estate developer and reality-show host who became president. CNN warns there is “a not insignificant possibility that this approach could be tested beyond its limits in the Persian Gulf.”
It would not be surprising, CNN adds, “if Iran’s surviving leadership interpreted retreats, contradictions and animated social media posts as a signal that the strategy of imposing economic consequences – for example, by threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz – is working on Trump.” That said, no one can predict what might happen inside Iran, the network continues, noting the possibility that the assassinations of top leaders may have caused fatal fractures within the regime that are not yet visible.
So far there have been no public signs of disintegration. While air raids may have significantly degraded the regional threat posed by Iran, Tehran does not yet appear to be on its knees, and it is therefore unclear why it would give up its only major lever of pressure – control over Hormuz – without receiving anything in return.
The Taco option
For Trump, declaring a victory that in reality does not exist – the Taco option – would offer a way out of a conflict presented to the country, and perhaps to himself, as a short strike that risks becoming one of the “forever wars” the tycoon had promised his voters he would end.
But such an operation would not be simple, since it would leave Gulf allies once again exposed to an angry, strengthened Iran. Furthermore, ending the conflict without seizing control of enriched uranium reserves would allow Tehran to resume its nuclear program, effectively erasing the principal justification for the attack launched by Trump together with Israel on February 28.
“Presidents often face crises that offer no good options, but few confront situations as unmanageable as the one in Iran, created by Trump himself,” the American network concludes.
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