21 September 2026 | 00:02

READING: 4 minutes

European intelligence agencies warn that the risk of a Russian action against NATO is real, and that an attack ordered by Vladimir Putin could materialize “within months, not years.” The alert, reported by The Guardian, follows Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s statement to parliament about a possible Russian attack—using drones or missiles—on NATO territory in the coming months intended to demonstrate that Article 5, which obliges the Alliance to act if a member is attacked, “is more theoretical than practical.” French President Emmanuel Macron described Tusk’s warning as “well-founded and well-documented” and briefed party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates at the Élysée on concrete threats linked to Moscow’s actions.

The Guardian cites assessments from three senior European intelligence officials. Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s security service (BIS), said Kremlin plans could include a small-scale invasion of NATO territories bordering Russia. “It is possible. Moscow’s strategy could involve a limited incursion, provocations or a large propaganda campaign,” he warned, adding that such a scenario could occur “in months, not years,” while noting that “many people are doing everything possible to prevent it.”

The British newspaper also spoke with Baltic officials. “We do not see signs of an imminent attack,” said Normunds Mezviets, director general of Latvia’s state security service (VDD). “It remains to be seen whether the Russians have direct, concrete plans or if this is part of a broader effort to spread fear and uncertainty in Western societies. Before 2022 we repeatedly warned our Western partners about the Russian threat, but our voices were often ignored. In 2022 our partners changed course and recognized that the Baltics and Poles were right.”

Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general at Estonia’s foreign ministry, criticized the “panic on social media” that has circulated recently about a possible attack. “If there were reasons to fear an attack, rest assured we would make it clear. Until then, stay calm, carry on and support Ukraine,” he wrote on X.

Moscow, from President Putin downward, has repeatedly argued that supplying Ukraine with weapons, intelligence and military advisers makes Western countries participants in the war and therefore legitimate targets. The Guardian notes that Russia has so far avoided direct attacks likely to trigger a coordinated NATO response, instead relying on hybrid-warfare tactics and provocations that have increased in recent weeks. The medium-term aim appears to be to weaken Western support for Ukraine: “The Russians believe that by escalating the conflict sufficiently, European countries will decide to stop supporting Ukraine,” Koudelka summarized.

Trump and Zelensky, meeting in New York

Concerns about escalation are growing as the UN General Assembly meets in New York. In the city, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to meet Donald Trump following recent contacts. The Kyiv leader said the meeting “could change many things. There is diplomatic momentum. I thanked the president for the visit of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Kyiv. We examined key details thoroughly and they were able to see the situation in Ukraine firsthand. The path to peace is our top priority. There are ideas for steps toward de-escalation and to address fundamental security issues: energy security, food security and the protection of human life. We are working with the American team and are ready to take concrete steps.”

In recent weeks, the Trump administration has made a new attempt to initiate negotiations to end the war. “I have seen no sign that Moscow is seriously considering concrete negotiations,” said Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s military intelligence and security service. “In my view, the Russians still believe they can achieve their strategic objectives. Consequently, talk of negotiations is only a show.” “By now,” Koudelka added, “every fire or malfunction must be treated by intelligence services as a potential terrorist attack. And that outcome benefits the Russians.”