The United States, Iran and Oman are close to a provisional two-month agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reports, citing two regional sources and a U.S. official. The U.S. aims to announce the deal today. The agreement, following the halt to attacks ordered by President Donald Trump, is intended to restore a ceasefire and encourage the resumption of negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program. “We are having great talks,” Trump says in an interview with Fox News, once again threatening severe consequences for the Islamic Republic if the Strait is not reopened “very soon.”

“The Strait will be opened very soon or they will be hit hard. And then the Strait will be opened. We were about to carry out a tremendous attack, the heaviest since World War II. They called me and very politely said, ‘Please, can we talk?’. I said, ‘Yes, we can talk. Let’s finally make the deal.'”

How long the agreement lasts and what it provides

The expected agreement would be for 60 days and could be extended. According to the draft cited by Axios, all inbound naval traffic transiting the Strait and heading into the Persian Gulf would follow a northern route, in Iranian territorial waters. All outbound traffic toward the Arabian Sea would move along a southern route, in Omani territorial waters, coordinated with Iran. No fees would be applied during the two-month period. The parties would commit to clearing naval mines from the central channel of the Strait within 30 days. Once security conditions are restored, the central route would be used for both inbound and outbound traffic under a permanent agreement to be negotiated by Oman and Iran.

Axios notes that three weeks ago the United States and Oman, with various mediators, believed they were close to an agreement. Washington then resumed strikes against Iranian targets. The new negotiation attempt now involves Qatar, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. In recent days, there have been several calls between Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi.

Araghchi’s provisional approval of the draft reportedly came over the weekend. The complex approval process in Tehran was completed on Tuesday with the green light from the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the Supreme National Security Council.

U.S. short on interceptor missiles

The breakthrough would follow Trump’s halt to the raids. Over the weekend the president stopped the attacks, apparently suspending plans for a massive offensive. Reporting by CNN indicates that U.S. armed forces have used almost 80% of their interceptors, a cornerstone of the missile defense system. Military leaders have also issued warnings about dangerously low ammunition stocks available to the Pentagon. In this context, a diplomatic solution becomes almost obligatory.

Specifically, according to two sources familiar with stock levels, the U.S. has used nearly 80% of its THAAD missiles and about half of its Patriot missiles since operations began at the end of February. CNN draws on estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies: before the conflict, the United States was thought to have about 2,200 Patriots (in the two more modern variants) and 452 THAAD missiles.

The shortage of systems would make defending U.S. military facilities in the Persian Gulf far more difficult and would leave regional allies more exposed to Iranian missile and drone attacks.

Also read