The war in Iran has entered its third week. Fifteen days after the start of strikes by the United States and Israel, the conflict risks becoming a “trap,” with a real prospect of escalation. The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, the focal point of the oil crisis, raises doubts about the effectiveness of the strategy pursued by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu: despite the killing of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, the clerical regime in Tehran is holding firm and its stocks of highly enriched uranium are not secure. After absorbing the initial heavy blows, Tehran’s response has produced a long-planned “horizontal escalation” aimed at widening the geographic scope of the conflict with attacks on Gulf states and imposing significant costs on Washington and the global economy.

The escalation trap

In this context, analysts warn of the risks of an “escalation trap,” in which the attacker becomes drawn into an increasingly complex, prolonged, and costly conflict because of a growing gap between the tactical and strategic levels of the Israeli-U.S. campaign. In simple terms, the tactical level covers specific military tasks-such as air strikes that hit their intended targets-where the campaign has had success. The strategic level determines whether the war’s political and national security objectives are achieved and at what cost.

“There are several phases in the escalation trap,” Robert Pape, an American historian who has studied the limits of air power and advised multiple administrations, told The Guardian. “What we saw with the initial strike was tactically almost 100% successful. The problem is that when this does not produce strategic success… you reach the second phase of the trap. The attacker still dominates escalation, doubles down, climbs the escalation ladder, but this still does not produce strategic success. Then you reach the third phase, which is the real crisis, where much riskier options are considered. I would say we are in phase two, and on the verge of entering phase three.”

According to Pape, the Trump administration became “captivated” by the initial strike and developed an “illusion of control” based on the precision of its weapons. That perception pushed Tehran toward its own model of escalation, focused on broader economic and political impact. By targeting Gulf states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has shown it can raise the costs of the war for Washington far beyond what U.S. military measures alone could directly counter the Israeli-U.S. assault. The Iranian attacks “are designed to create rifts between the United States and the Gulf states, which in turn create divisions between those states and their citizens,” Pape adds, saying they are forcing Gulf populations to ask, “why are we paying the price of a war that seems driven by expansive Israeli policies?”

The uncertainty of Trump’s reaction

Robert Malley, former U.S. special envoy to Iran and lead negotiator in talks with Tehran over its nuclear program, said the way the United States has approached the conflict-and the level of escalation or de-escalation chosen-has likely been shaped less by clearly defined strategic considerations than by Trump’s psychology. “At some point, I assume there will be a way out, but I can imagine escalation reaching levels we really would not have contemplated even a month ago… troops on the ground, attacks on basic infrastructure, taking control of parts of Iran, working with Kurdish groups or other ethnic groups. All of this, he reasons, can grow in different ways. But that could trigger Iranian responses, and then who knows what happens. I would not be shocked if we saw terrorist attacks against soft American targets. If that happens, whether directed by Iran or not, how will the president react?” Malley concluded ominously: “At this point, what we should fear is that the scale of escalation may be the one Trump feels most comfortable with, because I do not think the Iranians will make his life easier. I do not think they will hand him victory on a silver platter by saying, ‘Okay, we’ll stop shooting.'”